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Twenty First Annual Darwin College Lecture Series 2006

SURVIVAL

Lecture 5   :   17 February

SURVIVING NATURAL DISASTERS

James Jackson

Cambridge University

Biography  |   Abstract   |   Printable Version   |   Podcast Preview

Abstract

This has already been a shocking century for natural disasters, with many tens of thousands of people killed in earthquakes in Gujurat (2001), Iran (2003), Sumatra (2004) and Pakistan (2005). Moreover, in the last few decades several devestating earthquakes have apparently targeted population centres in otherwise sparsely inhabited regions, particularly in Asia. A close examination of this situation reveals that ancient settlments are often located for reasons to do with water supply, access, strategic defense or controlling positions on trade routes, and that these considerations are, in turn often controlled by natural geological phenomena, particularly features of the landscape that are created by earthquakes. What were originally small villages grow into towns, then cities, and now mega-cities of with several million people. But their growth has, in general, not been accompanied by any reduction in earthquake hazard. It is this close relation between where people live and earthquakes that leads to the apparent bulls-eye targeting of cities by earthquakes. As a result, we should expect many more disasters this cetury, some of which will be far worse, in terms of mortality, than those we have already seen. At the same time, earthquakes in the developed world have largely become stories about economic loss, rather than loss of life. An earthquake of moderate-size can kill 40,000 in Iran (at Bam in 2003) but only a handful in California. The question of what to do with the huge populations concentrated in earthquake-prone mega-cities of the developing world is one of the most pressing of our time, and has no easy solution.

The lectures are given at 5.30 p.m. in The Lady Mitchell Hall, Sidgwick Avenue, with an adjacent overflow theatre with live TV coverage. Each lecture is typically attended by 600 people so you must arrive early to ensure a place.